NFL Week 4 betting tips: Put faith in Teddy Bridgewater vs. Cowboys, Daniel Jones vs. Redskins


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The landscape of the NFL has seen major shifts just four weeks into the season with injuries (and benchings) at the quarterback position leaving fans unsure of what to expect over the next several weeks.

But for those who like to lay a few dollars on NFL action, we’ve enlisted betting expert Joe Rodgers, senior writer for BetIndianaNews, to help us decide which wagers are worth making — and which to avoid in Week 4.

Which game are you targeting with the most confidence in Week 4?

Eagles (+4.5) at Packers, 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday (Fox/NFL)

This prime time game features two of the preseason favorites in the NFC.

While the Packers have met expectations with a 3-0 record, the Eagles have limped through the last two weeks with back-to-back losses to the Falcons and Lions.

According to Rodgers, Green Bay is getting far too much credit as it hosts Philadelphia.

“With points at a premium, +4.5 with the Eagles has value written all over it,” Rodgers told Omnisport. “The public is pounding Green Bay with over 70% of tickets and dollars wagered in the betting market despite questionable box scores and mediocre performances from Aaron Rodgers. The Packers’ offense still isn’t fixed and the defense is overvalued after facing Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco.”

Cowboys at Saints (+2.5), 8:20 p.m. Sunday (NBC)

New Orleans is down a Hall of Fame quarterback, but Teddy Bridgewater performed admirably on the road in Week 3 with a win over the Seahawks.

Michael Thomas didn’t eat up as many targets in the passing game but he (along with Alvin Kamara) did find the end zone for the first time this season. All things considered, the Saints may be just fine without Brees.

“The wrong team is favored in this game,” Rodgers said. “The dropoff from Drew Brees to Teddy Bridgewater isn’t as drastic as the talking heads make it out to be. This is still a playoff-caliber team catching points at home.”

Aside from the questions still surrounding a Bridgewater-led offense, bettors may be wary of placing money on Saints defense that ranks 27th against the run as it welcomes a Dallas rushing attack that had two 100-yard rushers a week ago.

But a quick look at the box scores shows the Saints have been stout against the run after being shredded by the Texans in Week 1.

Running backs vs. Saints

WeekTeamRushing yardsYards/Attempt1Texans1807.82Rams1153.83Seahawks1094.2

“Let’s not forget the Saints were the No. 1 rush defense last season and are historically slow starters,” Rodgers said. “They are starting to find their groove.”

Which game are you staying far away from?

Chargers (-16.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

It’s a safe pick to choose whichever team is facing the Dolphins if you hope to advance in your survivor pools, but when it comes to Miami’s Week 4 home game against the Chargers — it’s best to turn a blind eye if you want to bet against the spread.

“There is no way I’m putting hard-earned money on a tanking football team in the Dolphins,” Rodgers said. “The Chargers’ cross-country flight and Miami humidity actually give the Dolphins a chance to at least cover the spread, but I’m staying away.”

That seems like the smart move. Miami has had very few expectations put upon them through three weeks of failing to cover spreads of 18 and 22.5 points over the last two weeks.

And frankly, asking for a 17-point win is a tall order even for a Chargers team looking to make a statement after back-to-back losses.

Just slot Keenan Allen into your daily fantasy lineup, enjoy those points and consider putting a few bones on New Orleans later in the day.

Through three weeks, what intriguing trends are you noticing?

The NFL wants points. The fans want points. But those betting on points have been disappointed so far in 2019.

Rodgers pointed out betting the UNDER went 20-12 through the first two weeks of the season. However, after the league urged referees to take it easy with offensive holding penalties after an alarming number were called during the first two weeks, the OVER prevailed in Week 3 at 12-6.

“I predict we’ll see the OVER be the more profitable total moving forward,” Rodgers said, with the caveat being that games with the home team as an underdog of eight or more points (48-11 to the UNDER).

Home underdogs — Week 4

GameOver/UnderDolphins (+16.5) vs. Chargers43.5Bills (+7.5) vs. Patriots42.5Lions (+7) vs. Chiefs54Cardinals (+5) vs. Seahawks48Saints (+2.5) vs. Cowboys47

Is there a prop bet out there that makes sense to target?

Raiders tight end Darren Waller OVER 5.5 receptions vs. Colts

There’s not much to be proud of if you’re a Raiders fan, but the emergence of tight end Darren Waller has been nice to watch.

And following an insane Week 3 in which he caught 13 or 14 targets for 134 yards, Waller will line up against a Colts defense (without Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker) that’s struggled against tight ends.

Colts defense vs. tight ends

WeekPlayerRec. YardsTDs1Hunter Henry, LAC6002Delanie Walker, TEN3603Austin Hooper, ATL662

Waller has had at least six receptions in each of Oakland’s first three games this season and has 12 more targets than any other Raider.

“The loss of Antonio Brown has turned Oakland into a dink-and-dunk offense,” Rodgers said. “With the Colts primarily incorporating a zone defense that guards against big plays, Waller should see plenty of targets again on Sunday when playing from behind as a 7-point underdog.”

What player could swing a game and throw a wrench into someone’s betting afternoon?

The most intriguing quarterback matchup of Week 4 is in the desert as the Cardinals host the Seahawks.

Kyler Murray had a bizarre stat line in a loss to the Panthers last week completing 30 passes for only 173 yards. But Rodgers said he expects a bounce-back effort from the rookie against a 25th-ranked Seattle defense that has just six sacks this season.

For some perspective, Murray was sacked eight times by the Panthers last week alone.

“Murray will be a 5-point underdog and the public loves short road favorites with what they perceive to be better teams,” Rodgers said. “While Seattle is better, its defense is not the 'Legion of Boom' of old and its run-first offense isn’t going to be putting up the points the Panthers did last week. I expect a lower-scoring game, with Murray given more time in the pocket to make plays.”

How has the influx of new quarterbacks changed how you analyze matchups for those teams?

The early portion of the NFL season has been dominated with headlines around guys like Gardner Minshew, Kyle Allen and the newest savior in the Big Apple — Daniel Jones.

With so much turnover in the game’s most important position, gamblers have to take a hard look at each game before making a bet, right?

According to Rodgers, that’s not necessarily the case for all teams.

“For a few of the backup quarterbacks I don’t downgrade their teams’ power rating at all,” Rodgers said. “In fact, the Panthers, Giants and Jaguars all have an equal or better rating because the QBs that started the season were shells of their former selves due to injury or age.”

However, Rodgers did express concern about Steelers QB Mason Rudolph, who had just two completions further than 1-yard beyond the line of scrimmage in his start against the 49ers last week.

“It’s clear they just want him to get the ball to playmakers in space by running 21.7% screen passes thus far,” Rodgers said. “That’s not going to work well, even against the Bengals on Monday night as a 4-point favorite.”


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